Data & Methodology

M2 Money Supply

The primary data source is the M2 Money Stock (M2SL) series from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. M2SL is published monthly, seasonally adjusted, in billions of dollars.

Base Values

Real-Time Rate Calculation

The real-time counter uses a linear interpolation based on the most recent month-over-month change:

Historical M2 Data

All historical values are approximate annual averages sourced from FRED M2SL.

Consumer Price Data

The "Same stuff. Higher price." section uses historical consumer prices from multiple authoritative sources. All prices are nominal US dollars for the year indicated.

Median Home Price

Source: US Census Bureau (median sales price of new homes, 1950-2010) and National Association of Realtors (existing home median, 2020-2026).

Gallon of Gas

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), annual average retail price for regular gasoline.

Dozen Eggs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), average price data for eggs (Grade A, large, per dozen). 2026 reflects elevated prices due to avian flu supply disruptions.

New Car (Average Transaction Price)

Sources: BLS CPI (historical), Kelley Blue Book (recent). Represents average new vehicle transaction price.

College Tuition (Public 4-Year, In-State)

Source: College Board, Trends in College Pricing. Represents average published tuition and required fees at public four-year institutions.

Movie Ticket (Average)

Source: National Association of Theatre Owners (NATO) and BLS CPI admission indexes.

Limitations & Caveats

M2 is not "printed money"

The Fed doesn't literally print all of M2. M2 includes cash in circulation, checking and savings deposits, money market funds, and other "near money." Much of M2 growth comes from commercial bank lending activity (credit creation), not direct Federal Reserve operations. We use M2 as a proxy for the total money supply because it's the broadest commonly cited measure that captures the money available for spending and investment.

The real-time counter is an approximation

M2 doesn't grow at a constant rate. It fluctuates daily and can even contract (as it did slightly in 2023-2024 during quantitative tightening). Our counter uses linear interpolation from the most recent two monthly data points. It's directionally accurate but not precise to the second.

Price data limitations

Historical prices before 1980 are approximate. Early data points (1950-1970) are sourced from Census Bureau records, BLS historical tables, and academic compilations. Product quality and composition change over time (a 1950 car is not a 2026 car), so pure price comparisons don't capture the full picture. We present these numbers to illustrate the magnitude of price changes, not to suggest the products are identical.

Correlation vs. causation

While there is a strong correlation between M2 growth and consumer price inflation, the relationship is not direct or immediate. Other factors — supply chains, energy prices, labor markets, fiscal policy, global trade — all influence prices. We present the data to provoke awareness and discussion, not to imply that M2 growth is the sole cause of every price increase.